Comic Investing/Speculating During A Recession

my sales are down 50% from the last two years. slabs are not even worth posting anymore.

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This :100:
As mentioned before, even keys in pretty darn high grade are just passed over OR an equivalent raw is selling for more than the graded book.
I really feel they (CGC) has shot themselves so many times in the foot, that it is now actually impacting sales. They are no longer the Teflon that everyone claimed they were with the previous 861 gaffes.

This last charade in particular, and all that occurred prior, has finally caught up with them.

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I’ve been preaching since 2013 when I found CHU to just keep your books free and floppy… All I can say now is… “told ya so!” :thinking:

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Going to conduct an experiment and will post the results after my once a year show at the end of Sept.
Have a few different books but of note, I just bought a CGC 9.2 Skottie Young slab (the cool Morbius cover with him on the tombstone) for $35 and a Hulk #449 8.5 slab for $30. I’ll crack both, mark both up with fair and honest grading and report out what they sell for raw.

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They can always be “freed” if need be. So the only thing harmed is your wallet.

I don’t look at it that way personally. Mostly because I use the profits to buy more books. So if my profits go down, likely the price of the books I’m chasing are also going down along a similar curve.

For me it’s the lack of sales at all…and that’s just making the lead time to acquire a specific key longer. But I had specific goals to start the year what books I wanted in the PC by 12/31. So far I’ve stayed the course and at this point still on target, to the point that if I see an incredible deal I’m ready to pounce.

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I’ll be looking for them so that I can buy them and work my wizard/warlock magic on them with a clean and press - and watch them magically go to 9.8!! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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I’m on track to sell about 80% of what I made last year, so fairly close. But, I’m down to about 1/3 of what I sold in 2021. But, I also spend about 1/3 of what I did in 2021. Looking at the numbers, it’s interesting. Despite spending 1/3 of what I did in 2021, I’m actually buying as many or more books. I’m just buying far more cheap books. I read far more in 2024 than I did 3 years ago. And, any spec books I sell just goes to buy my reader stuff.

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I’ve never been that guy who slabs a book to flip it for instant profit. I sell a slab here or there, and in past submissions I’ve maybe included one book that intended to sell. But 90% of my slabbing (submittals and purchases) has been for my PC. Maybe even 95%.

I never quite understood investing large amounts in putting books in plastic cases, assuming being entombed automatically “raises” the value. Especially moderns. It seems like the profit margins (after pressing, shipping, grading, taxes, seller fees) are marginal at best.

Then there’s a whole nother level of insanity of those who will take any book and get a witnessed signature of any creator thinking they will make money. Yea, there are some creators whose signature is tough to get, and they may command a premium. A signed cover is a damaged cover. Unlike removing a comic from a slab, you cannot revert the book back to its original form after it’s been signed. (Edit: except maybe deluxe covers signed with dry erase markers…accidentally removed a Jock signature once!!)

And a signature is supposed to be a personal thing. So
I get those who get books signed for their PC, basically it’s a reminder of a memory/moment. But buying someone else’s book that was signed by someone you did not meet or witness? I don’t get it. If anything when I’m looking at books on eBay I pass over the yellow labels…I don’t care if offered for less money than an unsigned copy…I’m not interested…forget about paying more.

I see these people with hand trucks and carts full of books waiting in line at conventions…getting artists to sign 50 books each all witnessed…to flip. I see the you tube videos of people rummaging through collections and pulling out book after book and saying how they are putting minor keys (at best) aside to get signed by the most random creators with the intent to sell…I don’t know how there’s any money to be made in that. I’d loose my house for sure if I tried.

I think the major appeal of people paying big money for slabs is because of the aesthetic appeal of the slab. They want to display it on their walls in their mancave. Say what we want about CGC but imo their label design looks terrific. People love that hologram and those big numbers that show their grades.

I was talking to an acquaintance recently when I ran into him at a con. We did not know that each of us were into comics. He told me that he only got back into comics within the last few years (the pandemic) and within the last 2 years he’s already accumulated over 600 cgc slabs. Prior to this he had zero of course. It’s all early ASM silver age slabs for his own personal collection. He’s not a seller. This story is not unique, people just love them.

Also factor in that the vast majority of comic book collectors don’t live near a comic shop. That’s why we see slabs sell so much easier online than in cons. Most people have to travel great distances to go to a con. Then there are those that don’t have time to visit message boards, social media etc to get a good understanding of the industry. It’s only within the last 2 weeks that people are finding out about the CGC banana scandal. Most people had no idea.

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Absolutely all about grading certain books because it just completely makes my life (or ultimately my kids and wifes life) easier. I don’t have a massive collection of golden age or silver/bronze age stuff, but I do have some pretty nice books. Tales from the Crypt and other really nice keys. I get those type of books graded because I just don’t have to sit and argue about the price with people.
Here’s the book…here’s the grade, here’s the FMV…take it or leave it. That is the area in which I do appreciate having a graded book. It’s so hard with old books that are sooo valuable even in horrible condition and just the smallest grade difference can be hundreds of dollars…I’m just not good enough to argue that with someone (and that’s on me of course). I can’t honestly determine if something is a 3.5 or a 4.0 with any confidence at all.

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I think eventually any PC book I own with FMV over $200 (2024 dollars) will get slabbed as soon as I feel I no longer have a desire to flip through the pages for that reason (easy liquidation). I don’t have too many of those raw as it stands now. Probably why I have interest in slabbing with any company at the moment.

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And that’s the whole point… saving time, money and unnecessary headaches.

Early on when the Marvel MCU was still young I would do that. Get books graded asap and sell for some good profit. I won’t do that these days. Too many D-list characters that pretty much stay on that D-list. I just sell un-graded and not risk sitting on a slab if it comes back a 9.4 or 9.6 for newer books, or worse yet by the time it comes back no one care anymore. Too many flavors of the week/month with less staying power for a lot of characters, especially newer ones.

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What are your guy’s thoughts on this? Dave talks about how the Feds are going to cut interest rates (and further into 2026, 2027) and how that would impact businesses and new job growth overall in the economy. Talks about his experiences and the real reason why comic prices (as well as other collectibles) started soaring during covid. Brings up some very interesting points. Thoughts?

He is correct but his theory rests on a big assumption, that the feds keep cutting the interest rates. If they don’t because they are worried about inflation killing the economy, you may see prices stabilize but not likely move upwards. Remember comics (and all collectibles) are luxury items. Luxury items are first things slashed when your family needs clothes, food, etc. When money is pretty much free (low interest rates) luxury items flourish (not just comics but anything that falls in this category) because kicking the payment down the road is so easy. But this is a double edge sword, if people have lots of money for luxury items, they have lots of money for other stuff, which ramps up inflation, which in turn makes the essentials more expensive and get the feds thinking about raising interest rates to calm down the prices. Its a constant and continuous balancing act they are always fiddling with.

Long story short, if interest rates continue downward you will see prices rise eventually. If rates get too low and the economy really starts moving, the price of $4 gallon gas and $5 loaves of bread will mean that you can’t even enjoy your high price comics because everything is inflated.

What you want as a comic collector/investor is a balanced interest rate, low inflation, and a growing and increasing interest in physical collectibles. The biggest hit to the comic industry right now, isn’t the economy or the interest rates, its the distrust and lack of faith in the slabs. That is the real problem.

Remember any collectible prices, as in comics, isn’t run by the hard core, super hardo collectors or flippers or speculators, the most money is in the casual collector. They don’t buy lots of comics but the sheer amount of them buying comics is what drives the prices. If they can’t trust that the slab is actual grade, if they believe the grades where all fantasy, and the company in charge can’t be trusted, they won’t buy a slab once a year at a convention or local store. You can see this already happening out there as it seems no one is buying slabs. Some of it is the economy, sure, but when the dollars are lean and you can’t trust the company that puts that grade on the slab, you start thinking of all the other things you could do with that money. Interest rates aren’t what I worry about, I worry that PSA doesn’t step into the market.

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My LCS has CGC 6.0 Hulk 181 for $3100. Just a year or so ago 5.0’s went for 5k or more. Interest rates can drop but if people don’t give a $hit about buying comics anymore, it won’t matter.

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He is basically saying that mean reversion will happen. At some point, higher earners will suddenly care about comics like in 2018, and comic prices will bounce off of lows. I just don’t see how sentiment towards comics changes.

I think the casual buyers that don’t trust CGC represents a very small portion of the market. There are still people out there that don’t have a clue what is happening at CGC. And why would they? We just assume that every comic collector is a savvy collector that is online and has all the info. That just isn’t the case as most people are not online checking up on what’s happening in the comic world.

I was talking to an acquaintance about comics and he really wants to buy an ASM 194 badly for his collection. He would be what I would describe as a casual collector. He ended up buying it online for what he thought was a good price. He waited and held off on purchasing because prices kept tumbling. IMO what’s really happening is that like you mentioned people are worried about inflation and they’re holding off on buying books thus we see the prices of books tumble. This has been happening for several years. The prices keep dropping so people don’t necessarily have as much FOMO as before. They’re waiting to see if they could snag it at a good price.

The interest is still there, that’s why we still see record prices being broken on the latest Heritage and ComicLink auctions. People just don’t care/know about the CGC banana gate (the VAST majority anyways)

I will say this as I’m also in the group that has been holding off on purchasing books as prices continue to tumble. For the longest time I wanted a high grade CGC 9.8 copy of Darth Vader 3 first Aphra, not for spec but for my own personal collection as I love that character. I didn’t think I would ever own one, not that I couldn’t afford it but I wasn’t going to be one of those people who were going to pay $500+ for a copy. As I saw the prices continue to fall it would be like trying to catch a falling knife. Now the prices are so rock bottom they’re inching to the $100 mark for a graded 9.8 copy. So at some point I’ll be buying one.

The same is happening to the people who always wanted a high grade Hulk 181. They’re just waiting until they get it for a good enough price that they’re comfortable with. Enough of these people doing that (holding off on purchasing) and the prices continue to tumble. When people start buying again prices will stabilize and start appreciating again.

Has nothing to do with the scandal (imo) or interest in comics. The interest is still there. When the economy begins correcting itself people will look to buy again. It’s going to be a steady growth not the comic boom we saw like Dave has alluded to in the video.

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This month has seen way too much of slowness on eBay for comic books for the most part. The beginning of the month started off decent, but not great, but the last few weeks have been slower.

I think that it will take several rate cuts before it helps with this stupid economy. We are probably a good several years from anything correcting with the economy at the way that things are going. Then figure people that are in massive debt these last 2 years, foreclosures, businesses shutting down, and bankruptcies will only get worse.

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