Just wanted to take a temperature check from this group, if that’s OK?
I’ve been thinking about investing a little in books like Batman Harley Quinn #1, Amazing Spider-Man #31 and Hero for Hire #1 (all been on my want list for a while). I was reviewing FMVs on Covrprice and noticed just how much these books have jumped up over the last couple of years. Even though they are not at the all-time high, they are a significant % higher than 2019/20.
Given the market is cooling a bit, would you press ‘go’ at this time?
My five cents, Im monitoring the books I want and holding and waiting a little longer so my funds will stretch further. Yes prices are coming down from their 2020 / 2021 but i think there is a little more space for these books to drop. Inflation / prices for essential goods, housing and gasoline (energy) is high, overall consumer confidence is low and starting to hear the word layoffs (all discussed in the how to invest during recession thread). A large part of comics recently have been based on mcu speculation and the consensus seems to be the shows and movies are on a downward trend quality wise. For the older books golden age, silver age and even bronze age i dont believe they will hit pre pandemic prices but i think they still have room for adjustment.
End of the day if I have the funds, there is always a book I want and someone to take my money. On the other hand once i buy the book, its not always so easy to move it eg the hassle, the fees, crazy buyers that are all part of the hobby. Hope this helps.
Overall, there’s definitely a dip, and that can be seen across the board - prices correcting down towards where you might expect them to be, had the distortion of COVID lockdowns not occurred. Key titles in high grades are correcting less, particularly older books, and moderns that aren’t in 9.8 are correcting quite significantly.
I think you need to assess whether you’re buying for the long-term or the short-term. If it’s the short-term, then there’s probably still some distance for most books to drop, and you might want to wait a little longer. I’ve picked up a number of keys recently at auction where I felt there was value to be had - e.g. a WBN #32, which seemed to have dropped in price not only because of the general market correction, but also after the end of the TV show. I paid something like 75% of the recent GPA market average, and probably “overpaid” if your view of overpaying is “will it be cheaper at any point in the near future”; but I don’t think I overpaid according to my view, as it’s one for the PC and I won’t be disposing of it any time soon (and I paid for it by selling a bunch of easily-replaceable modern books).
One way of looking at what a fair market value should be would be to take the 2019 average, assume an annual increase that looked like previous years (maybe 10%) and extrapolate what the current fair price should be without the recent market distortion. But I think the longer-term impact of COVID is that it brought people into the hobby through nostalgia, and although plenty will drift away, they are unlikely to all disappear, partly because of nostalgia, and partly because of the obvious underpinning of values created by the raft of content that the streaming platforms are delivering to the younger generations. In that way, do I think there is a bit of the “new paradigm” argument to made, and don’t envisage key books moving back to the baseline of 2019 prices * 1.10^3… so maybe don’t wait too long!
But it all depends what your main interest is (collecting, investing, etc.), the length of your perspective (five to ten years, twenty years, etc.) and your ability to manage perceived loss (if it drops in value 20% next year… do you care, or is that a big financial blow).
Auctions on eBay are starting to close at lower prices than a few months ago. I ignore the over priced Buy it Now listings. August usually is a month where income gets sucked into back to school shopping, so I am going to keep my eyes out for auctions on eBay in August.
that are all part of the hobby. Hope this helps.