Upcoming flip potential?

#1

So we know what the Marvel Action Spider-Man #10 Jonboy Meyers variant did on the secondary market - in the week of release it skyrocketed a cover price comic of $3.99 to a $200 comic if I am not mistaken… It still sells well now as well…

Anyways, Jonboy Meyers has another variant coming out next month (Venom #25) that I think has a potential to be another massive flip…

Granted, the Marvel Action Spider-Man #10 variant was from IDW so less people knew of the release and much lower print run but still think this one may be a one to watch. Not sure what you fine collectors think?

(sorry if anyone has already mentioned this, I did look at other post and couldn’t find a mention of this anywhere – just looking to make sure I’m sharing the love) :slight_smile:

#2

Cool Carnage cover. But, it’s a store variant. Store variants typically have very little, to no resale value. Buy it if you like it. But I highly doubt that the book will sell out or see any ROI.

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#3

I second this.

And to provide statistical relevance to the claim store variants typically have very little, to no resale value, name the ones that have.

And don’t include publisher incentive variants. Don’t include convention exclusives. Those seem to have their own recipe/statistics.

The first that comes to mind is the Virgin mattina Dark Nights Metal #3. That one has one of the first Batman Who Laughs covers, and is a homage to (or templates from? :wink:) a Joker/Batgirl Cover that was too controversial to release. It was also not a Virgin variant of a trade dress cover and was unique art. Still commands over $100 raw and $200 in 9.8 to this day.

The second that comes to mind is Amazing Spider-Man 797 Mayhew cover. It was an homage to the very popular Amazing Spider-Man 238 hobgoblin cover, and I’m not even sure it’s been homaged prior…that and again it was a unique trade dress cover (no B&W or Virgin dresses) and publicized as limited to 600 sold. It still sells well to this day, raws selling for close to $100 and 9.8s over $150 I believe.

I also think covers releases by the artists themselves tend to do well on occasion, like Alex Ross has his own site that sells his variant covers for special issues like Detective 1000, but again those are unique covers typically and very limited release #s.

I don’t buy like store variants anymore except in rare circumstances…but if I see virgin and trade dress or multiple artwork that’s very similar for the same issue I see no spec value.

Also, if print runs are over 600 then typically I will see no spec return either.

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#4

All Marvel store variants, with 1 cover, have a minimum print run of 3000. That is Marvel’s long standing policy. If any store claims otherwise, they are lying to you. Any store that isn’t up front about this fact, or any store who advertises using different words like ‘limited to only’, or ‘this many available’, are also being wholly dishonest with you. Any store that is not up front in their advertising, and uses any number other than 3000, is also being wholly dishonest. Rant over. Carry on.

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#5

That’s why they chose words like 500 “released” or “sold”.

As with the case with ASM 797. It was limited
To 600…I don’t recall if the words were sold, released or available…but I know they did not say “printed.” Maybe the extra 2400 were destroyed…maybe they’re in a where house somewhere…maybe they’re using them as toilet paper now… 🤷

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#6

I don’t think you can say they are being “wholly dishonest,” but you can say they are not being 100% transparent, for sure.

If the limit the release to 600, and they advertise only 600 will be sold then sell no
More than 600 then they’re stating a fact until proven its not a fact.

I’ve had damaged copies arrived of such covers and had them replaced after selling out, but I had to provide indisputable evidence my copy was destroyed before getting a replacement.

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#7

Store Variants do generally well for the, er, store …

If memory serves, some outfit even did a Variant on the X-O ManOWar #1 that had variant interior art … which was, I guess, kind of a first …

“manufactured collectable” …

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#8

Or, more likely, they are slowly selling them through private sales. :thinking:

I certainly do. They aren’t telling you the whole truth, therefore they are being wholly dishonest. We will have to agree to disagree on that front, Drog. :beers:

Asking someone to prove a negative is impossible and a logical fallacy. How is anyone supposed to ‘prove’ that this shop didn’t sell 2400 copies of their 3000 print run? The onus would be on the shop to prove, or show, that they did not sell the 2400 copies, not the other way around.

(Edit) I just looked a bit into it. There are 428 ASM797 Mayhews on the CGC census.I found about 10 CBCS copies currently on eBay, along with about 10 raws. That’s approx 75% of the claim of 600 copies sold. It would be very very very interesting if CBCS ever put out a census, so we could see how many graded CBCS copies there are and add them to the 428 currently on CGCs census. I’d put good money that there are more than 600 graded copies, between CGC and CBCS, in circulation atm. There are 25 graded CGC copies currently for sale on eBay. That’s about 6% of the total CGC census. If we extrapolate those ratios to CBCS, and there is currently 10 CBCS copies for saie on feebay, then; 25/428=10/171. 428 + 171 = 599. Extrapolate again with the raw copies on eBay and we get another 171. 599 + 171 = 770. The math, and odds, do not look good for the 600 sold claim.

#9

We all know the census is not statistically accurate as people who crack and re-slab rarely let cgc know they did as such so they could properly update the census. There’s 286 blue labels and they do show trends, but should not be counted on as actual figures. In fact there are 141 yellow labels, many of which may have been cracked slabs just for signing.

Plus many originally sold were as cgc 9.8s, and many raw subsequently were sent in for grading. I’ve been waiting for the price to come down on that book and have had it as a watch item in ebay for quite some time…the vast majority are cgc/cbcs copies vice raw. I believe most of the raws purchased on eBay over the 2 years this book has been out sold on eBay have made their way to encapsulation. A quick eBay search pulls up 23 results for sale…20 are graded, 3 are raw (1 of the raws is a German reprint version…so 2 of 22 are raw…10%). Looking at past 90 days there are 7 total sales…1 raw and 6 graded. Not a lot of raws…again by far most are graded.

Furthermore, Sad Lemon did explain they and the partner sites had a unique agreement for a print run of 1000 (vice 3000) for that particular book and why only 600 of the 1000 were actually put up for sale. If there are 400 copies that didn’t pass the 9.8 standard they are not showing up on the cgc census, anyway. Otherwise I would expect more than 30 out of 428 to been less than 9.8 if they were…

So, Actual data does not back up your claims.

l

#10

I can only find 2…world wide. So help me out.

#11

273 of those blue labels are 9.8s. The majority of all the books on the census are 9.8s. There is only 30 books that are not 9.8. No one is cracking these open and resubbing 9.8s in hopes of getting 9.9s. Even if every non 9.8 on the census, all 30, were graded less than 9.8, cracked and resubbed as 9.8s, then there is still 398 9.8 graded copies. Thats still 66%. Not to far from my stated 75%. And that cracking theory really doesnt hold water for this particular book. Recracking slabs applies to older books that were once graded before pressing was common. Recracking slabs does not happen nearly as often with moderns, especially fairly recent moderns (2015+).

When Simon was asked to provide evidence of this claim, he faltered and could not do so. Any honest retailer who does a lot of exclusives will tell you that Marvel does not do ‘special’ print numbers for anyone. Marvels policy is 3000 for 1 cover. Again, one can not prove a negative (Simons, in this case). The onus is on Simon, and he failed to provide any evidence other than his FB post. FB op eds have no factual basis.

I wouldnt. You yourself said they originally sold mostly 9.8s to begin with. That explains why there are so many 9.8s. And there are not a shit ton of dudes who buy books to grade. The ones who do wont send a modern in to grade at 9.6. If we do not count the 398 9.8s, 30 books would be 15% of the remaining, supposed, 202 copies ‘sold’.

I never claimed anything. I simply applied sound logic to the facts at hand. Conclude what you will. A CBCS census would put this to rest.

Simon Payne (sad lemon) is one of those shops who is notorious for being greedy, untruthful, and he is associated indirectly to comicxposure. Yes. That comicxposure. The real shitty one. Simon was caught red handed pumping and dumping a Spawn book a few years ago, with a Mattina cover, that he bought out at the distributor level, then was selling them for inflated prices at his shop after blasting the cover all over the interweb. Classic p’n’d. This is why this book, ASM797RE, has so much controversy around this suspect print run. Simon doesnt have the best track record.

Whats the price you’re looking to spend? There is a raw copy on the wall at one of my LCS’, its been there since release day.

PS. Im not doing hard research on this book. I truly am indifferent to it. But, it raises a lot of red flags in my book. You obviously are passionate about the book, and it seems as if you have done your due diligence to be confident that you know exactly what you are getting. More power to ya, @drogio. :beers: .

#12

The numbers for Marvel Variants are 3000/1000/1000 ( trade, virgin, B&W) - Pretty much set in stone these days.

for the prices they are asking vs the prices they pay … lets just say i wish i had the money to invest in that scheme.

#13

People crack books to get them signed.

#14

Provide the referenced discussion, please.

#15

And then get SS? If so, you don’t think they would go for the reslab service that CGC offers? (I’m not even sure CGC does this for blue to gold as I am not familiar with SS books or signatures, they do nothing for me)

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#16

A good comparative example to counter this argument is Dark Nights Metal #3, Martina Virgin variant. 500 printed (no disputes there, right?). And of the 307 graded barely half are 9.8s (174). If there are 3000 or even 1000 copies of ASM 797 Mathew floating around I would expect a more diverse range of grades.

#17

I’m not doing hard research. I believe it was on G+. I dont do FB, and never have. If it was there, I would have seen screen shots of said convos via G+ Facts, CBSMT or CHU. It would behoove you to ask Simon for that proof. Not me. It’s his onus. I simply recall him not being able to show a screenshot of any sort of deal he made. Whether that be an order form, invoice or such.

#18

I’m not super familiar with that book, but a 500 print sounds suspect too. DCs policy is 2500 for 1 cover. 1000 for a second cover, I believe. But, I think DC is way more flexible with those numbers than Marvel is.

Is it same cover stock as ASM797? How many 9.8s were pre sold by each seller for each respective book? Lots of important variables to consider there, I think, before you can soundly make your conclusion.

#19

That would be against Marvel Policy and hence get him kicked from the program.

#20

Releasing proof of a print run for a store variant is against Marvel’s policy? Interesting. That is way to sketchy for me to want to invest my money in.

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