Thanks guys.
But donāt worry, youāll have to claim it as income on this years taxes so they get a piece of the pie theyāre dishing out.
I think being directly from the IRS it already accounts for that. Thatās my understanding. So you get the full amount and not claimed as income.
But if you make more this year and find yourself in the runout curve (or you change you filing status with respect to dependents or partner) then youāll likely find yourself paying a small amount back as the stimulus in the end based on your 2020 income.
Ah, youāre right, these are not taxable checks this round.
I just think itās crazy when you file for unemployment, those checks are taxable income. Youād think they would take the taxes out or just not tax people when theyāre on unemployment benefits.
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Somewhat related to the unemployment and it looks like those people are going to bank some coin while out of work. They get an extra $600 a week on top of it for 4 months. When I had my Spine fused years ago I received both workerās compensation and disability and made more than I was when working.
Put this together, figured Iād share it here. Anyone who knows me knows Iām a statistical junkie. It has been known to help me in times where Iāve felt loss of controlā¦such as in times like this Pandemic. It helps me understand what lies ahead so I can figure out what I can control.
I will warn you, this is scary stuff.
Finally got around to putting together some data and trends based on other countries out ahead of us.
The first graph takes the average deaths over 3 days, then compares that to the average 3 days prior. The reason I did an average is because I think the day to day numbers sometimes have anomalies, and weāre really interested in long term trends.
The second graph is the same, but just confirmed cases. This one is a little more suspect as testing is recently very limited to those with either severe symptoms or āprivilegedā individuals. Honestly, I donāt think confirmed cases really matter anymore. Hospitalizations and deaths are the only data we can really trust as far as trends.
So what does this mean? It supports we are trending very well with Italy, and 2 weeks behind. The very situation we were hoping to avoid. This is deadly serious.
Weāre also on par with Germany and about a week behind Spain. I forgot to add France, but a quick look and their curve is nearly identical to Spain.
If extrapolate the number of deaths and cases out 2 weeks with Italyās curve we will see the death total reach 50,000 by 4/19. At that point we will hit a peak of 3,500 deaths per day, then start to trend downward.
From there assuming trend follows South Korea, which is assuming we at the peak and starting to bend the curve (they are at least a month out ahead of us) by mid May we will be at 90,000 deaths and 1.35 million confirmed cases. And thatās not the endā¦there will still be 1000 deaths reported per day but declining, and see us hit 100,000 deaths at around June 1st.
So the 100k deaths is real by using these very real trends. And thatās assuming people are abiding by social distancing guidelines. To save more lives youād have to shut the country completely down at this point, and given how wide spread it is nowā¦I donāt know if it would make much of a dent at this point
We are going to see a lot of horrible heart breaking and heart wrenching stories, as well as hopefully many uplifting stories of heroics.
This will truly be nothing like the world has ever seen in the coming 15-30 days and hopefully we will see the bending trend by end of April.
Stay safe, all of you and your families. Maintain social distancingā¦wash your hands and donāt touch your face. Be kind to others. Do everything you can do to come out on the other side healthy.
Assume everyone and everything around you (save live in family) has the Virus and act accordingly for 2 months.
Iāll update this every few days assuming Iām healthy to see how it follows actuals.
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awesome work. my concern is how long will the downward trend last after we hit the Apex and what will the next outbreak look like in the Fall.
Yes. All good questions and I think there isnāt enough history and scientific research with virus to speculate those answers.
Right now itās survive and advance. Letās worry about round 1. The battle scars we carry over will likely influence how well we prepare and devote ourselves for round 2. There will be changes made in anticipation of another roundā¦whether it be covid-19 or some other novel viral threat.
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Iām an āessentialā frontline Healthcare workerā¦I see this upfront. I see the daily impact. Iām so frustrated at this point with the conspiracy theory folks, the flu is worse, what about how many have recovered, etc, etc, etc ad nauseum.
I wish I could take these #$%^& for a guided tour of the damn ICU and morgueā¦maybe a whiff of the dead will clear their damn heads.
I said it from the very startā¦we have some very amazing people in this country. Some wonderful, giving folksā¦but for the most part, we have become a greedy, self centered, āME before WEā, āmuh rightsā, āYou canāt tell meā¦ā, type of society that is gonna completely bite us in the ass this time. You know why some countries do better than others? Because they do what the hell they are told and put the greater good above themselves. Sure, in some cases they are told what to do at pretty gunpointā¦but guess whatā¦they are alive!
Sure, plenty will recover, sure these naysayers can quote numbers all day longā¦but in the end, if it is your mother, fathers, aunt, uncle, friend, child, grandparentā¦that is dead, and you never even got to say goodbye. How much will you care about those damn numbers? Iāve yet to see a patient say they didnāt want treatment because itās a hoax!
Ugggā¦sorry for the rant, this is so damn frustrating to me. I have a sick wife at home going through chemo. I have to get up and head to work to help others, knowing full well I could bring a bug home to her that could kill her. Iām watching friends lose their business.
That unemployment benefit will likely be a good thingā¦but the system is crashing daily (at least in my state), they are completely overwhelmed, and how long will it take? The talking heads love to talk the talkā¦but the bills are still due.
The only thing Iāve seen that was actually done pretty well and made a huge difference was the Federal Student Loan thing. They are suspected till September, there is zero interest, you still get credit for loan forgiveness (if you were in the program), and it was quick and easy to do on the Fed Loan website. I guess Iāll look to the positive with that.
At any rate, thanks for listeningā¦please take care and stay safe. I really do think about all of you as I feel like Iāve gotten to know all of you a bit.------Regards!!!
Thank you for the sacrifices you make and the risks you take. Iāll say Iāve been doing my part to social distance myself since late February when it was confirmed the virus hit mainland USA and have been scared of becoming like Italy. Even so, When the WH came out with 100k-240k I was still stunned by how that that many deaths in such a short period was even possible and had to run the numbers myself to see it to believe it. It is very very real. Maybe not 240k real, but definitely 100k realā¦and in a span of 3 months should wake up everyone because it WILL effect you on some level, and the young and healthy are not immune from a death sentence as some reports have lead us to believe early on. It seems very random right now other than if youāre near it, you likely got it, and you are at its mercy.
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I couldnāt agree more on this. I hate to say this but thereās a lot of spoiled bratty Americans. We certainly do live in a ME ME ME environment. Itās one reason I pretty much stopped using Facebook and most social media sitesā¦ just a bunch of narcissists out there.
I dislike whatās going on in the world right with this COVID-19 and it killing people but honestly, Iām really enjoying the quarantine myself. Those people who feel they have a ārightā to go out (when they donāt need to) are just selfish bratsā¦ stay home, wash your hands, keep your distanceā¦ if you really need to get out, take a walk around the neighborhood and enjoy the cleaner air (not sure about you all but the damn air quality seems to on the rise again with less cars and manufacturing going on).
I work with a guy who said he had to argue with his wife who wanted to go āshoppingā this past weekendā¦ not because she needed stuff but just wanted to get out of the houseā¦ sigh! He had a heart attack last year and is vulnerable, everytime she goes off to work (at a hospital herself) or goes out, sheās only increasing the chance of bringing it back, something that can very well kill him if he gets it.
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Nobody is truly immune but makes one wonder if those who claim they were āhealthyā actually had underlying issues they didnāt even know about themselves.
It would be nice if they have the time to perform necessary autopsies that will better understand how someone everyone thought was āhealthyā and āyoungā died from the virus.
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The way I read it, the extra money on top of the normal State money is capped at what you were making while employed ā¦ IOW, if you made $500 a week before, and your State benefit is $300 per week, you would get an extra $200 a week so youāre making $500 a week ā¦ you would not get $900 per week, since that would be more than what your were making prior to becoming unemployed ā¦
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Yeah, unemployment wages are usually set at a certain rate. Sounds like you got disability wages while also collecting unemployment. Most who are being let go cause the business canāt pay them with layoffs will make far less than they were making while working.
The last time I collected unemployment benefits was way back in 2000 around the dot com tech bustā¦ I think my unemployment benefits were around $1200 a month totalā¦ which is what, around 24k a year? I know then I was making almost double that rate as full time employee. The $1200 barely paid my bills, I racked up a lot of credit card debt during the 6 months I didnāt have a job.
$14,400 per year ā¦ 
Ughhā¦ sorry, fat finger hit the 2 instead of the 1ā¦
Sorry but i disagree. If ur playing catch up with the virus and bot being ahead of it then ur gonna get smacked with it. (Yes that asshat who stole our masks said that) The wife and i saw this in jan and started preparing. With that said, im looking at the 2nd wave so I can be prepared and do my part by not going out and interacting with people.
Maybe in timeā¦but all youāre saying is that there likely thousands of people walking around thinking they are healthy and they may in fact not be. I think Iām healthy. I might not be. I dunnoā¦no oneās cut me open to find out.
So that still puts you and me and anyone else at the same risk relative to all these others dying or getting really sick without known underlying conditionsā¦even if we āclaimā to be healthy. So it that really doesnāt matter right now.
I know youāre not referring to me, but I want to quarrentine but my business is āessentialā and I donāt qualify (high risk self or family member) to have one of the coveted company laptops. So either go into work, use up my paid time off (which was drained quite well with my Achilles surgery this winter) or take unpaid and lose my benefits in 30 days.
Iām watching trends to know when the right time is to just walk out for 2+ weeks. I suspect theyāll be overwhelmed in 2 weeks and send everyone home.
6 confirmed cases in my company. None in my building. 600 in quarantine and 50 outstanding tests. Iāve found a way in to my office and out without being near anyone. I shut my door most of the day as I see a l out of traffic walk by.
I wipe down my desk, keyboard, phone, mouse and door handle before I sit down. I touch no surface outside of my office without a tissue or something in between it and my skin.
Doing all I canā¦but this thing is airborn. Itās Russian roulette, so it feels like.
Iām 75 with heart issues ā¦ the way I see it, some folks have it and will never know it ā¦ so, they are like a walking silent virus bomb ā¦ thatās reason enough to do whatās necessary to stay as safe as possible ā¦
Iām fortunate ā¦ Iām a paranoid, have been most of my life, Iām also ex-military ā¦
Iāll let you in on a little tid-bit that wonāt make the news, yet is particularly chilling ā¦ Iām on the VA and the DOD email list ā¦ I was a Combat Medic when I was in the Military and I was deployed ā¦ even though I have been out now for over 50 years, the DOD emailed me and asked if I would consider coming back in for 12-24 months since I had a medical background when I was in ā¦ take a one month refresher course and once up to speed, join the fray ā¦
Now, if the experts at the DOD are looking at this through that kind of lens, well, I hate to even consider the real possibilities ā¦
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